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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."